Download Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: a practical guide by Mary A. Meyer PDF

By Mary A. Meyer

Specialist judgment is helpful for assessing items, platforms, and occasions for which measurements or try out effects are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and interpreting professional Judgment: a realistic consultant takes the reader step-by-step throughout the options of eliciting and examining professional judgment, with specific realization given to aiding the reader enhance elicitation tools and instruments adaptable to numerous particular occasions and paintings components.

The research approaches offered within the ebook may possibly require a uncomplicated figuring out of information and possibilities, however the authors have supplied distinct factors of the strategies used and feature taken unique care to outline all statistical jargon.

initially released in 1991, this booklet is designed in order that these accustomed to using professional judgment can speedy locate the cloth acceptable for his or her complicated heritage. beginners might be eased into the subject by means of targeted chapters explaining what professional judgment is and the way it may be used, an advent to statistical suggestions and notation, definitions for statistical phrases, and a separate thesaurus of professional judgment phrases.

humans in undefined, executive, and academia are acutely aware that they have to catch their services, in addition to entry and replace it in digital repositories (knowledge systems), in the event that they are to maintain their leader resources and aggressive facet. This e-book offers a shortcut to making those wisdom structures.

The leading edge technique are expecting (Performance and Reliability assessment from diversified details, blend, and monitoring) is used to foretell the functionality of a posh approach present process swap. This booklet presents are expecting clients with counsel on how one can elicit and research professional judgment, together with the linked uncertainty. professional judgment is a vital resource of knowledge whilst try info isn't to be had.

Audience This e-book can be a necessary source for laypeople in professional judgment who're operating in such fields because the actual sciences, records, utilized arithmetic, govt, and the army. it's going to additionally expand the standard equipment of individuals already skilled within the use of specialist judgment, for instance, these in chance research, reliability research, operations examine, selection research, or wisdom acquisition.

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Interactive groups in which the experts and a session moderator meet in a faceto-face situation to give and discuss their data. The participants' interactions with one another can be structured to any degree: (1) a totally unstructured group resembles a typical meeting, while (2) a highly structured group is carefully choreographed as to when the experts present their views and when there is open discussion; such procedures help prevent some of the negative effects of interaction. • Delphi situations in which the experts, in isolation from one another, give their judgments to a moderator.

We have found that the granularity used in gathering the data influences the results of the analyses. 4. The conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors, ranging from the wording of the problem to the expert's internal mood. The conditioning effect poses problems because many factors can intrude without the data gatherer's awareness, overlap with other variables, and complicate the analyses.

Another way of using this book would be for the reader to examine sections after performing them in an application. Reading portions of the book in retrospect will allow readers to note some of the strengths and weaknesses in their performance of a phase. Most of the chapters on elicitation contain sections on common difficulties and means for resolving them. The reader can refer to these sections at any phase of gathering expert judgment. 15 INTRODUCTION Flow Chart for the Use of the Book (Parts II and III) Chapters C 4 ") Part II: Elicitation Procedures Selecting the Question Areas and Questions experts' cooperation/vews are critical, Read chapter 6 before continuing 5 ( O Refining the Questions 1 Selecting and Motivating the Experts Q7J) Selecting the Components of Elicitation Co ^) Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation 9 Practicing the Elicitation and Training the In-House Personnel (^ 0 J) Conducting the Elicitation CHAPTER 1 16 Part III: Analysis Procedures If familiar with statistical and simulation techniques, Skip chapter 11 (iP^) (j 2^) Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data Initial Look at the Data—The First Analyses 13 Understanding the Data Base Structure Ml 4 J) Correlation and Bias Detection model formation is not required, Skip chapter 15 ^f5^) Model Formation If aggregation is no/ require Skip chapter 16 16 Combining Responses—Aggregation 17 Characterizing Uncertainties 18 Making Infrences 2 Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment In this chapter, we address many of the common questions that often arise from misconceptions concerning expert judgment.

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