By Dek Terrell, Thomas B. B Fomby
The editors are happy to provide the subsequent papers to the reader in acceptance and appreciation of the contributions to our literature made by means of Robert Engle and Sir Clive Granger, winners of the 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics. the elemental subject matters of this a part of quantity 20 of Advances in Econometrics are time various betas of the capital asset pricing version, research of predictive densities of nonlinear types of inventory returns, modelling multivariate dynamic correlations, versatile seasonal time sequence types, estimation of long-memory time sequence versions, the appliance of the means of boosting in volatility forecasting, using assorted time scales in GARCH modelling, out-of-sample evaluate of the 'Fed version' in inventory expense valuation, structural swap instead to lengthy reminiscence, using tender transition auto-regressions in stochastic volatility modelling, the research of the "balanced-ness" of regressions studying Taylor-Type ideas of the Fed money fee, a mixture-of-experts method for the estimation of stochastic volatility, a contemporary evaluate of Clive's first released paper on Sunspot job, and a brand new classification of types of tail-dependence in time sequence topic to jumps. *This sequence: Aids within the diffusion of recent econometric suggestions * Emphasis is put on expositional readability and straightforwardness of assimilation for readers who're surprising with a given subject of a quantity *Illustrates new strategies
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Extra info for Econometric analysis of financial and economic time series
The correlations between Germany and the UK and Japan and the UK have the highest persistence with respect to shocks while the persistence of Germany and the US is very low. For monthly data, the correlations are mainly constant or also have a very low persistence. In general, there is a very weak evidence of a considerable correlation persistence. In most cases, the persistence of shocks of the correlation processes is much lower than the persistence of shocks to variances. An exception is the daily correlation of Germany and the UK that exhibits a degree of persistence which is comparable with a typical volatility persistence.
Tse and Tsui (2002) proposed a new multivariate GARCH model that parameterizes the conditional correlation directly by using the empirical correlation matrix and Engle (2002) suggested a time-varying correlation model, called DCC that also parameterizes the conditional correlation directly and enables a two-stage estimation strategy. The Flexible Dynamic Correlations (FDC) estimator suggested in this paper also specifies the conditional correlation directly, but is only a bivariate model. However, in its bivariate form, it is shown to be the most flexible.
The Review of Financial Studies, 11(4), 817–844. , & Solnik, B. (1995). Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960–1990? Journal of International Money and Finance, 14(1), 3–26. , & Solnik, B. (2001). Extreme correlation of international equity markets. Journal of Finance, 56, 651–678. -H. (2001). Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets. Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, 1805–1827. Ng, A. (2000). Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin.