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By Magda Osman

Controlling Uncertainty: selection Making and studying in complicated Worlds studies and discusses the most up-tp-date learn when it comes to the methods we will keep an eye on the doubtful international round us.* gains reports and discussions of the most up-tp-date examine in a few fields suitable to controlling uncertainty, similar to psychology, neuroscience, computing device technology and engineering* provides a brand new framework that's designed to combine numerous disparate fields of study* Represents the 1st booklet of its style to supply a common evaluation of labor with regards to figuring out keep watch over

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Extra info for Controlling Uncertainty: Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds

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For example, I know that I’m going to start feeling nauseous now, because I’ve just eaten a plate of fish with big yellow fins. I can know this because I can refer directly to my experience of eating, seeing the fish on the plate, examining the colour of the fins and so on. Also, I can say this because if I ate the same thing last week and the week before, and each time felt nauseous, then I can use this experience to warrant thinking that I’ve made a similar mistake now as then, in eating something that has caused me to feel nauseous.

In the first illustration the system happens to be a biological one that we are familiar with in which the desired goal is to get rid of the cold. , feeling well). The next illustration is a system of people, all of which are working towards a main goal (keeping an identified zone safe) by adjusting the behaviour of the system (sending out a unit on a fact-finding mission, and protecting the safe zone) and responding to the change in circumstances (returning fire after the initial bombing) (Johnson, 2003).

In other words, while we can use a combination of counterfactual reasoning and interventionist thinking to gain causal knowledge, we can only make sense of the new causal knowledge based on what we already knew about the interventions we made. This is because our interventions and the counterfactual reasoning we employ is based on other prior causal knowledge. In fact, the counterfactual theory in general has had many commentators who have criticized it on grounds of circularity (Armstrong, 1999), inconsistency (Bogen, 2004) and also that counterfactual dependence is not necessary for causation (Kim, 1973).

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